Over the next few days I plan to post more detailed analysis of each candidates place in the field, biography and potential hurdles. I was holding off on this on the assumption that the fine people of New Hampshire would winnow the field down still further, and in this they have obliged me. So to begin with lets just nail down the event that was the New Hampshire primary, who won, why and what it means.

 

What is a New Hampshire, and why does it matter?

New Hampshire is a small irregular rectangle on the north-eastern edge of the United States. As they never tire of repeating, they hold the nations first primary. But what about Iowa i hear you say? Well, technically Iowa is a caucus. A caucus in American political parlance signifies a big meeting where you demonstrate support for your candidate by standing in certain parts of a large room in front of your friends and neighbors, resisting their appeals to shame, greed and avarice with the white hot flame of your political commitment. Unless you have a job. In which case, you basically can’t play. It’s a bit of a problem. New Hampshire, by contrast, opts for the more traditional ‘vote by putting a piece of paper in a box’ method we all know and love.

But which people? And what box? 

Iowa and New Hampshire are the one-two punch of primary politics. Very seldom does a candidate win both, largely because of the diversity of those two states. Whats important to note about New Hampshire is that there is a much smaller evangelical electorate in that state. While Iowa has a reputation as being up for grabs for the insurgents and the populists, New Hampshire is traditionally seen as the domain of the moderates (with a few notable historical exceptions). If you are not a firebrand conservative, New Hampshire is the state you need to do well in early to demonstrate your viability. What most candidates go there looking for is a ‘ticket out’ of the state, as the saying goes. They want the right to compete and be taken seriously in later contests.

So who got a ticket?

Most obviously Trump, but others as well. But lets just settle on that point for a second. Donald Trump won a primary. We are living in a world now where he of the inimitable hair and perpetual bankruptcy  is amassing delegates. Any lingering doubt you may have about whether or not the Trump Show was actually a real presidential campaign or simply a bad joke should be put from your mind. Because this was a big victory. The Donald won working class voters, younger voters, older voters. His victory could, if one was so inclined, be called emphatic.

Does that mean Trump will be the nominee? 

Not by a long shot. His support seems to have a ceiling of around one-third of the GOP primary electorate. He will need to expand that if he wants to win the nomination. What this victory does mean is that you we will be seeing more of New York’s less than favorite son.

What’s all this about John Kasich? 

John Kasich overcame the handicap of nobody outside of Ohio knowing who he was to come in second in New Hampshire. To be honest it wasn’t even a terribly strong second, but he was the person with the most votes whose name wasn’t Trump. This apparently entitles him to the adoration of much of the press corps. That shouldn’t be important, but it is. This is what i mean about the narrative nature of this process. The fact his second place finish is being treated as a big deal makes it a big deal because in many of these cases perception and reality are intimately intertwined.

 

What is the next thing to watch? 

The next contests are in South Carolina for the GOP, and Nevada for the Democrats. I’m currently preparing a long post about South Carolina for both parties, and will also do one on Nevada for the blue team. In the meantime i’ll be posting some more detailed analysis of each candidate and where they stand now that the field is down to a more manageable size. I have been desperately hoping Ben Carson will drop out so i can be spared writing about him, but sadly the good doctor has disappointed me.