The Republican primary in South Carolina as well as the Democratic Caucuses in Nevada are now concluded. Candidates have left the race, and the Republican establishment continues the waking nightmare that is the ascendancy of Donald Trump. I will deal with the Caucuses tomorrow, but first the Republican South Carolina primary.

So what happened? 

Donald trump won big. Very big. Again. This was not meant to happen. By this time in the cycle we were meant to be watching the Bush juggernaut grind towards the nomination with glacial inevitability. But, to paraphrase the poet Burns, shit comes up. In this instance in the form of Donald Trump. If you take away only one thing from this primary let it be that The Donald is sailing towards the GOP nomination. Like an object in Newtonian physics he will remain in motion unless acted upon by an exterior force. Those waiting for his candidacy to self destruct will wait in vain, i’m afraid. Disillusionment with the operation of the American political system and the elites and establishment that surround it has reached such a stage that a plurality of voters on one side simply want someone to tell it like it is and break heads on their behalf.

What about the rest of them?

Well lets go through the candidates in order of vote total.

1st Donald Trump

With 36.9% of the vote, Trump walked away with the gold medal. This is an important development. Firstly, it was the first primary in the South. Remember that the Republican party of today is essentially a Southern party. Don’t misunderstand me, there are many northern and blue states with Republican governors. But the influence of Southern voters is unavoidably greater on those who represent Southern states and districts. A congressman from Boston cares very little how popular he is in rural Alabama. To fail to win the South is to fail to connect with the foundation of the Republican party and the bedrock of its electoral support. Trump proved that he could win Southern primaries, that New Hampshire wasn’t a fluke and that his candidacy isn’t some media soap-bubble that expands meteorically only to pop. His campaign is real and, looking increasingly inevitable, swelling like a dying star before exploding in a crescendo of in this case electoral  annihilation.

2nd (But not really) Marco Rubio 

Expectations are key in shaping the all-important narrative of the campaign, and Rubio managed to beat them by scraping in to what some are calling second place. I say this because beating someone by (at time of writing) .2 of a percent in a crowded field is not a rational barometer for ascendancy. Rubio and Cruz got circa. 165,000 and 164,000 respectively. That is not statistically significant. But, expectations for Cruz were high. While Rubio, off the back of his disastrous debate performance and subsequent pummeling in New Hampshire by John Kasich, had set expectations very low. This is why expectations are important. Because of them, a statistical tie for both of them is a victory for Rubio and a defeat for Cruz. Rubio’s strong showing in South Carolina helps him in his ambition to become the standard bearer for the non-tea party and non-trump conglomeration.

3rd (But not really) Ted Cruz

This was a disappointing result for Texas’ least amusing son. His campaign is predicated on support from the movement conservatives of the hard-right and the evangelical wing of the party. South Carolina is overwhelmingly favorable ground in that regard, with the evangelical vote dominating the primary. His failure to come closer to Trump’s vote total, if not beat him again as he did in Iowa is a serious obstacle in Cruz’ path to victory.

 

4th Jeb Bush

After calling on his elder brother and his mother to campaign for him, and after having spent vast piles of cash on advertising in South Carolina Bush was able to muster only a desultory 7.8%.He staked it all on South Carolina, a state with a history of support for the House of Bush, and lost crushingly. Swiftly afterwards, and to the surprise of nobody he suspended his campaign. The crucial question now is where does that support go?

5th John Kasich

The expectation game is working for John Kasich in this primary. Having essentially no support in the state before the New Hampshire primary, nobody seriously expected him to win or even place highly. He is not a good fit for the South Carolina primary, either in style or in terms of policy. His more pragmatic and conciliatory message largely fell on deaf ears. Kasich was, however, able to catch up to Bush, ending with virtually the same result. Because of this he can claim there is momentum behind his candidacy, that his campaign is growing and survive long enough to make a stand in the mid-west where his appeal is thought to be greater. Whether he can survive long enough to be a factor in such states, or demonstrate any significant support at all in places other than New Hampshire are open questions. Personally i don’t like his chances. In previous cycles Kasich would be just the sort of man to be a first-tier contender. But the adults lost control of the show a long time ago.

6th Ben Carson

The core of Ben Carson’s national support are evangelical Christians. Since they are the dominant group in this primary it should be unsurprising he got quite a lot of support considering the parlous state of his campaign. 7.2% is obviously not a winning number, but it is certainly enough to move the dial. That is why most of the discussion in the media surrounding his campaign is about when he will drop out, to see where that support will go. Under usual conditions that would be some time ago, but his campaign recently announced a larger than expected fundraising haul so perhaps the good doctor will continue his seemingly semi-conscious presence on the trail.

So why did Trump win? 

The crucial factor to understand in this season is that Trump is winning because the field is divided. He isn’t winning absolute majorities, merely the largest plurality of voters. If you take the votes of what are perceived to be the ‘establishment’ candidates (Rubio, Kasich and Bush) you get a number that eclipses Trump’s. But Cruz splits off the Conservatives and many Evangelicals, Trump takes the anti-establishment angry and disillusioned crowd and then the other three candidates fight over the remaining ‘governing’ wing of the party, concerned with governing the country in a conservative fashion rather than ideological crusades or populist preaching. Unless and until candidates follow Bush’s lead and drop out to allow the anti-trump blocks of the party to consolidate, Trump will continue on to victory.

God help us all.