I thought it might be interesting at this point to examine the minor party candidates for the Presidency. And there are a few, although as will become very apparent none of them have the remotest chance of success. Many of them are not going to be an option for voters in some states. Places like California have very onerous demands for even getting on the ballot. Thousands of signatures from different parts of the state, all within a set time in order to meet the eligibility criteria. And having access to less electoral votes means you need to win the ones you do have access to even more urgently. All in all its not good for third parties out there. So, lets run down the list.

Gary Johnson (Libertarian, Access to 456 Electoral Votes) 

Former Governor of New Mexico, and also former Republican, Gary Johnson is the Libertarian nominee for president this cycle. And he is, just a little bit odd for a Presidential candidate. He wears sneakers seemingly everywhere and used to be the CEO of a medical marijuana company. He is, in other words, not cut from the same cloth as the standard candidate. But that makes sense, because neither is his party. The Libertarian party has been around for ages, and is overwhelmingly the most successful third party around right now. But that isn’t saying much. They control some local offices across the country, but have no representation in federal office. Last time Johnson did this he managed to capture about 1% of the popular vote. Johnson and his party present an interesting ideological melange. He holds positions usually reserved for the extremes of one party or the other. This might suggest he has cross-party appeal, which may prove true, but as Aneurin Bevan noted when you stand in the middle of the road you get hit by cars going both ways. Democrats won’t like his ardor for tax and spending cuts whereas Republicans will recoil at his positions on Abortion and drug legalization. The more votes Johnson can get, the  closer he gets to unlocking more public funding for the Libertarian cause. In that sense this is not a quixotic exercise, but the polls do give some reason for optimism. He won’t win, but in some surveys he is capturing 10% of the vote in a field dominated by two candidates with truly epic unfavorability ratings. I don’t think it will last. Numbers for third parties usually drop off towards polling day. But i wouldn’t be at all surprised if he got 3-5% in the end. Still a considerable increase. But no, Gary Johnson will not save you from Donald Trump right now.

Jill Stein (Green, Access to 425 Electoral Votes)

The Green party in the United States is a shadow of the Australian movement, and even more anemic than its British counterpart.   They have about the policy proscription you would think they do. Their ‘policy pillars’ are ecological wisdom, social justice, grassroots democracy and non-violence. Which is all very nice, but isn’t really where a lot of the electorate is over there. The American Greens have some officeholders, to be sure, but again it is mostly on the local level. Their prospects are limited. They are just trying to catch up to the Libertarian party, and we have already been through how far away they still are. So no. Jill Stein will sadly not be riding in on her white horse to save the American left. The better candidate for this was Sanders, and as you will all have noticed he chose to carry out his crusade within the Democratic party, rather than outside it. That does not bode well for them.

Is that it? 

Well, really yes. But also no! Nobody after this point can win, even in theory, because their name is not on the ballot in enough states. But here we go anyway.

Darrell Castle (Constitution Party, Access to 187 Electoral Votes)

See, this is where it gets ridiculous. Take this Darrell Castle guy right here. He is running for the Constitution party, as down the line conservative as you can get, but he seems to be a Libertarian. Or what we would approximate as Libertarian at least. This is what happens with small parties, they are subject to being essentially annexed as wholly-owned subsidiaries for a time by a powerful personality and the central structure is too weak to maintain its ideological integrity. If it sounds like i just described what happened to the Republican Party with Trump coming along, that isn’t a coincidence. Its not a good sign for a Party. Maybe its not some aggressive play on Castles part. Perhaps the Constitution party were just running short of enthusiastic sacrificial lambs and Brother Darrell offered himself up. In any case, he is almost certainly not worth having on your radar.

Party for Socialism and Liberation / Peace and Freedom Party / Liberty Union Party(Access to 135 Electoral Votes) 

Ok, no. I’m not looking up these people. Its not going to be a thing. I’m really just including them note that the Party for Socialism, the Socialist Workers Party, the Socialist Party USA and the American Solidarity Party are all running their own tickets. So the next time you hear someone say Clinton or Obama or Kaine or someone is a Socialist or a Communist, remind them that they have their own candidates.

 

So that just about it for the third-parties. There is an Anti-Trump third party effort underway, and an interesting split in Utah, but i will write more fully on them in the future. For now, that is the state of the field as far as minor parties go.

Although they won’t win, if the margin of victory is only a few points, those 2-3% in a particular state can prove crucial. Both Trump and Clinton are hoping it will hurt the other more. Time will tell who is right, but i am inclined to think right now as the electoral math stands in a close election you would want to be Clinton.