The phrase ‘down-ballot’ in American political parlance is used to describe people running for relatively less prominent positions. Trump is on the ballot in Ohio for President of the United States, but innumerable other state and federal officials also running in Ohio will be listed below his illustriousness. These are the ‘down-ballot’ races.

Conventional wisdom goes that a successful presidential candidate can give your down-ballot chances a boost as voters are more disposed to vote for your other candidates if they are voting for the one at the top of the ticket.

So the question people are asking right now is whether or not Trump and his fairly poor polling numbers will drag down Republican candidates in otherwise competitive races?

There is evidence of this in Pennsylvania, where Pat Toomey has gone from a seemingly comfortable re-election to fighting for his life. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire also seems to be in a serious race now. In fact the chances of the Democrats regaining control of the Senate and ensconcing Harry Reid once again in the luxurious confines of the office of the majority leader seem to have increased markedly.

But then there is Rob Portman. He seems to be swimming against the current. The last poll i read had him up by about 8 points relative to The Donald. So what are the factors underlying that divergence, and its it replicable?

1. An independent political brand. Portman has been conspicuous in Ohio politics for more than 20 years. He has a long standing and fairly consistent portfolio of positions, high name recognition in his state and a political network of his own to rely on. That helps a lot, but is hard to replicate for someone with less experience in their state and in governance.
2. Issue Differentiation. Portman isn’t a Trumpian candidate. He is a fairly down-the-line, old school pro-business Republican. He is not that crazy, and acts like he isn’t that crazy. He seems to be intentionally behaving like the anti-trump.
3. Resources. Portman has the support of the Ohio republican party. Owing to the leadership of John Kasich and others, the GOP in Ohio has maintained considerable distance from Trump and his campaign. Additionally, Portman has a large war-chest with which to get his message on the airwaves. So not only is he not trump-like, but he can afford to inform everyone how not trump-like he is. This is replicable, but not really at this stage of the game.

So will Trump’s numbers lead to a bloodbath for otherwise viable GOP candidates down-ballot? I’m inclined to say no. He might lose them a couple, but with the current level of polarization in the country a Trump defeat is unlikely to be of historic proportions. In other words, there are enough people right now who would vote Republican no matter what that the outcome with Trump on the ballot is unlikely to fall outside of the range of plausible outcomes that existed beforehand. Ayotte might lose. Toomey might also lose. But those seats were never terribly safe anyway.

But, as always, time will tell. I’ll post more about the Senate and Gubernatorial races worth watching in the future. But for now, be cautious whenever you hear that Trump will destroy the chances of other Republicans. The evidence is far from conclusive.