One of the strange things about the U.S. Political system is that many people, including commentators who really should know better, focus almost solely on presidential politics. One could excused for thinking that the United States was an elective monarchy. So much time is given to scrutinizing candidates for Commander in Chief, and so prominent is that office, that it is easy to forget just how limited its powers are.

The President is commander in chief of the armed forces to be sure. He also directs the agencies of the Federal government, and his assent is necessary in most cases to make a law. But to be honest, he has less power over his nation than many other leaders have over theirs.

Consider Westminster democracies, for instance. The Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia, Britain and New Zealand all have considerable powers and privileges the U.S President does not enjoy.

Wheras the Westminster system requires a working majority on the floor of the legislature in order to form government, the Presidency and hence the Executive in the American system are separate. This means that the President must try and get support for his agenda from a legislature with its own imperatives, interests and eccentricities rather than simply directing the action of his subordinates as would a Prime Minister.

This is a point i really cant over-emphasize. In order for any of these wild schemes of Trump’s to happen even assuming eventuality of his election he would require  solid and supportive majority in congress.

Lets examine how one of these offices might stymie a potential Trump Presidential agenda. Because although we hear so much about the President, where domestic policy is concerned the Speaker really holds the cards. This office performs many of the roles of Prime Minister in other systems. The current holder is Paul Ryan, the 2012 Republican VP nominee.

He decides what the House does. He decides when and if a certain bill gets voted on. He rallies the troops, keeps them in line and enforces order upon the unruly Republican caucus. If you want to get a bill passed in Washington, you really need to get Paul Ryan on board. This goes for the president also. Because if it involves taxes, spending or legislation of any kind and El Presidente wants it Ryan doesn’t need to just be on board. He needs to do it for you. The President has no vote in Congress. He is entirely reliant on supporters and surrogates in Congress pushing his agenda for him.

The White House comes with a tremendously large bully pulpit of course. This is one of the primary levers the President has, really. Truman described the situation thus:

‘The people can never understand why the President does not use his powers to make them behave. Well all the president is, is a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing, and kicking people to get them to do what they are supposed to do anyway.’  

This is important, because Paul Ryan is not that crazy. He is pretty aggressively white-bread to be honest. He is a very wonkish man from Minnesota who enjoys preparing specimen budgets and talking about growing the conservative movement. The vital difference between he and Trump is that Ryan is palpably concerned with governance. He wants to be in power, run the country, shrink the government and balance the budget.

We’ll leave aside for the moment the fact that his budget proposals are violently over-optimistic in their assumptions and utterly antithetical to what i consider fundamental ethical and practical concerns. Because even though its a bad plan, it shows some level of understanding and engagement with reality. He spells the names of agencies correctly, he uses graphs, he comes up with ideas for savings and programs. He is, in other words, an adult. A conservative adult, but an adult none the less. And right now that puts him head and shoulders above most of the clown car of mediocrity parading itself before us.

So even in Trump wins, are we going to see a wall between the U.S. And Mexico? No. Of course not. Aside from the fact it can’t be done, Paul Ryan will not give him the money to build it. Nor would he fund the new agency Trump  would certainly be needed to round up and deport the 12 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the united states. He won’t pass offensive and unenforceable laws forbidding Muslims from entering the United States.  All of these will be total non-starters.

Once you take this into account it is clear how content-free and foolish most of Trumps output is. He is discussing things that are not possible. He is like the candidate for class president promising everyone the bubblers will dispense chocolate milk and lunch will last all day. Whether he is sincere or not isn’t important, his promises are outside of the power of his office.

Trump has no deep institutional support within the Republican Party worth speaking of. All his support seems at this stage to be conditional, the party treating him as some sort of hurricane they can ride out. I can’t see them going to the wall at his request or making deep political sacrifices to push forward his agenda. It is much more likely that once they are elected, and their positions assured for another cycle, they will tell Trump to go get stuffed.

So should we still be worried? Of course. I think a Trump presidency would be a total disaster. The Presidency still has many powers, especially in the realm of foreign affairs and domestic administration. Its those promises that should worry you. He could break things that are currently working. But when he promises to do new things, introduce new laws and agencies it is important to see that for what it really is. His opinion of what others should do under his leadership. Because he really cannot order it done himself.