The weekend just passed two things happened which consumed much of the news cycle. The first was Clinton making a statement at a fundraiser regarding Trump supporters many have considered controversial. The other was the former secretary of state coming down with what doctors have since said is pneumonia, being forced to cut short an event and recuperate at her daughters apartment. Today i want to look at the Trump ‘gaffe’ So what happened, and what does it mean for the campaign?

The Basket of Deplorables

Clinton referred to ‘half’ of Trump’s supporters as being in what she calls the ‘Basket of Deplorables’. For starters, i think this is an amazing phrase. A basket of deplorables sounds like something ACME would sell to Wiley Coyote. First off, lets have a look at the whole passage so we can see the remark in context.:

“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people — now 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America. But the other basket — and I know this because I see friends from all over America here — I see friends from Florida and Georgia and South Carolina and Texas — as well as, you know, New York and California — but that other basket of people are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they’re just desperate for change. It doesn’t really even matter where it comes from. They don’t buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won’t wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they’re in a dead end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.”

For starters, its understandable why Republicans are upset by this. Most people don’t  want to think they are in a coalition with racists. And it should be clear to anyone with a modicum of sense that racism in america can’t be confined to a single party, to say nothing of sexism, homophobia, xenophobia and islamophobia. But there are four things i want to say about this.

Racists are more likely to support trump

Polling evidence is overwhelming that those who hold negative views of one race or another are more likely to support the GOP nominee. While racism is obviously hard to poll, indicators can be found quite easily. Even with a conservative and charitable interpretation of the data, this is difficult to ignore. For instance, you can ask how willing individuals would be to vote for a presidential candidate who is African-American or Hispanic. Even attitudes towards different types of people moving in to your neighborhood can give an indication of views on groups of people. Its important not to make too much of this data, limited as it is, but the implications are clear. What i will for want of a better word call the trump ‘coalition’ seems to hold these markers with much greater frequency and regularity than the opposing Clinton bloc. They certainly exist, but at this stage its pretty clear that if you are a little bit to a lot racist, you are more likely to be a Trump supporter than a Clinton supporter.

Where i have a problem with Clinton’s statement is when she says ‘half’. Could it be as high as half? Sure. But considering the data i personally believe that estimate is on the high side. But that is sort of immaterial. Even if it was a third, or a quarter, that is a sizable chunk of his vote. One he couldn’t win without. That should surprise nobody, because…

Trump’s campaign has been race-baiting from the beginning

Remember when Trump refused to admit the first Afircan-American president was born in the U.S? Even when confronted with incontrovertible proof, he denied it for years . Or when he described an esteemed American judge as a ‘Mexican’? Then there was the proposed ban on Muslim migration, an unenforceable and unconstitutional nightmare of a policy proposal that would never get off the ground. When endorsed by David Duke, the well known oxygen-thief and Klan leader, he refused to distance himself for longer than any ethically responsible person would.

People often do not realize that Trump is NOT running a traditional conservative. Many of his policies, from trade to the minimum wage and infrastructure, are quite liberal when compared to his fellow Republicans. His anti-Hispanic rhetoric, his bellicose, prejudiced, bloviating ignorance is not a bug. These were the stances that allowed him to be on te stage with other Republicans. Without them, he would never have been allowed to stand there and make his arguments. He would have been simply cast out. But these sorts of ideas have currency in the modern Republican party, and in many parts of the union. That is because…

The GOP is diverging from the electorate 

Over the past cycles the American electorate has become younger, more diverse and more educated. By contrast the Republican primary electorate, and the Republican general election coalition, has become older, whiter and less well educated. That is how he can get away with this. His racist statements are the passport he used to get himself onto the Republican stage. They are not an accident, they are a feature. And this needs to be pointed out. Unfortunately these days calling someone a racist has lost much of its currency. Accusations fly so thick and fast on social media that the charge of bigotry is no longer taken as seriously as it once was. We have, in some sense, cried wolf too many times. So how to inject a serious criticism of Trump as a racist, when everyone kinda already knows he is?

I’m not at all sure this is an accident

This was not a poorly expressed thought. Apparently she has been using a variation of this line in fundraisers for weeks now. The difference is, this one was the first open to the press. There is just no way the campaign wouldn’t vet the candidates prepared remarks with this in mind. If i were a betting man, i would put good money that this is not in fact a gaffe at all. Look at how sympathetic Clinton is in the last half of her statement. She offers a diagnosis of the problems of many who support Trump that couches their antipathy and anger in the most relatable possible terms.

Another reason i think this is a set of remarks intended to excite controversy rather than a mistaken utterance is that i find it hard to believe anyone actually offended by it would concievably vote Clinton. Moderate independents and swing voters however? I can see them being galvanized against Trump by this sort of thing.

Will it work?

Who can say. But i don’t think she lost anything. If anything such a ‘gaffe’ makes her seem more authentic. But how it plays in the media will be determinative. Once again, time will tell.