Remember that ‘Trump Comeback’ I wrote about a while ago?

It’s here! Politico, Huffpost, Fivethirtyeight, CNN, NYtimes…Everyone! They all say so! Clinton is no longer leading or is behind in Georgia, Florida, Ohio and Nevada! Panic! The free world is going to be led by a serial bankrupt and demonstrated fraudster!

Right. Now my duty as a talking head to mouth off in an alarming fashion has been discharged, let’s get down to business. Particularly let’s talk about why this doesn’t surprise me, why it shouldn’t surprise you and why this is not a reason to start moving to Canada. Or Mars. The fundamental reason is that we should always have expected this to be a close election. And as ahistorical and unusual as Trump seems to be at first glance, even he cannot escape the historical dynamics that shape the political process. He is a player in the system, no matter how he may wish otherwise. I view this whole correction as a reversion to what we can be generously described as normal, not a departure from predictability.

The Economy, Stupid

In the immortal words of Jimmy Carville (I know i quote him a lot, but he says interesting things OK?) It’s the Economy, stupid. The U.S. is seeing some cause for optimism in economic terms, but the numbers are still not great. To put it bluntly it’s the type of recovery that feels to most people like no recovery at all. Huge sections of the country and the electorate are not feeling the love as far as investment, wages and employment are concerned. And there is a significant correlation historically between economic performance and support for the incumbent party. If things don’t seem to be going well, people are less likely to re-up for four more years. This is one of the main arguments used against Carter. Reagan looked down the barrel of the camera in that debate and asked the American people if they were really better off than four years ago, if they felt more secure or more prosperous. And most said no. So ended the reign of the Peanut King.

So according to economic indicators, we should expect this election to be fairly close. Everyone seems to think Trump is so repulsive he would counter-act this dynamic. I’m sorry, but he is just not that kind of a special snowflake. It hurts my bleeding Liberal heart to say, but Ronald Reagan he ain’t.

The Third Term

Electing presidents of the same party for the third time in a row is quite rare. It happens, but most of the time the opposition party either benefits from antipathy towards the incumbent (Obama, 08) or absorbs part of the successful incumbents strategy and message (Clinton, 92). Winning 3 on the trot is difficult, and historically unlikely. So we should expect Clinton to be facing some headwind, even taking into account Obama now having an approval rating above 50%. So again, a close election is what we should expect.

Clinton is really unpopular

Cards on the table, I like Clinton a lot. I wanted her over Obama in 2008. And I think she would do a great job as chief executive. But there are two problems. Firstly, she is not very good at campaigning. Being the Placido Domingo figure in front of the crowd, drinking-in the spotlight and applause as her husband does so readily is just not how she operates as a human. She is an introvert trying to behave like an extrovert, and people can tell. Back in the days before the 24 hour new cycle, before TV and YouTube, she would have thrived. Now one needs movie-star charisma. And that she does not have. But that is more a reason why she can’t seem to shake her unpopularity.

The second reason she is unpopular is a combination of her own eccentricities (she is a very private person) and the fact that she has been the subject of almost unrelenting hatchet jobs for most of the last three decades. At this point many conservatives and Bernie supporters will cry foul. She is crooked, they will cry. That was all fair game, there was no ‘vast right-wing conspiracy’ as Hillary so famously put it. I find that line of argument laughable. One day I’ll do a whole post on the vicious and well-funded attack campaigns that have been targeted at her as First Lady, Senator and then Secretary of State. Right now I am inclined to confine my arguments to a single word. Benghazi.

The Right have been after her scalp for most of my life. The fact they have not managed to claim it is, to me, testament to her determination and stoicism rather than any kind of political skill. If anyone in modern American politics is the equivalent of Rocky Balboa it is she. No matter what is thrown at her, she just keeps pushing forward.

Now I have many reservations about her as a candidate and in all candor would have much preferred if Joe Biden had entered the race, but the key question is this: Do her atrocious numbers line up with her actions in the real world? I’m firmly convinced they do not. There is something else going on here.

At the risk of alienating many further, I think its pretty obvious that sexism plays a role. The idea that it is coincidence that her numbers seem so very unhinged when equivalent male politicians are viewed so favourably is a non-starter for me. From the way the presidency is viewed, to expectations of how women will act, to how we treat equivalent statements from male versus female politicians I think there is a strong case to be made that a male politician who did all the same things would be in a much better position. That he would not be called ‘shrill’ so very often, that he would not be derided for his clothing so often, that he would not be accused of physical weakness so often. Nor would it be assumed that there is some kind of binary choice between ambiiton and love of family. That her marriage is one of convenience. Or, most disgustingly in my opinion, that staying with your partner after an act of infidelity must be a cynical calculation rather than an expression of loyalty and commitment.

My over-arching point here is that she is not very popular with huge sections of the electorate. They don’t like her, and so it would be somewhat amazing for her to be winning by a huge margin. Especially when the above factors are added to the equation.

A House Divided

I know I keep going back to this point, but it bears repeating. The U.S right now is more deeply divided than it has been for a long time. You know that feeling you get when you look at Trump? The sick feeling in your stomach? The utter incomprehension how such a thing could happen? The feeling that the  baseline of rationality and decency  you always assumed was there holding us all up had suddenly fallen away? Above all, the sudden shocking realization that a lot of people didn’t share your values after all?

That is how much of the country felt about Obama. And now Clinton. That is what it is to be in a culture war. I keep hearing people say ‘But how can they vote for him? He is evil!’. Yes, to you he is evil. But the factor that needs to hit home in order to understand the Trump phenomenon is that much of America is not like you. Not within driving distance of being like you. And one of the unfortunate aspects of Democracy is that those people have as much right to see themselves represented as you do.

They have been locked out of discourse. Left behind in the ‘old economy’. Derided as uncomprehending rubes in thrall to racist delusions and bigoted, xenophobic dogma. And all that may be true, it really depends where you stand. But they like Trump. Because he treats them as if they matter, as if they are important, as if they are in charge. It is the flip-side of the same coin that brought Jeremy Corbyn to the top of the Labour party in the UK. A sudden, intoxicating realization that the political process could represent you at last, that someone who shared your values could be in charge. A moment when you look around and realize you are not alone in your anger and discontent after all. And that maybe, just maybe, you can do something about it.

That is what drives Trump, to the extent that he is being driven at all. And I have already established in prior posts why I think his political success and acumen is over-stated. Being the Republican nominee will get you about 40% pretty much regardless of who you are. Clinton being unpopular will get you a little more. The economy being pretty mediocre will get you a sliver more than that. It was never realistic to believe half the Republican voters in the country would stay home or suddenly have a Damascene conversion to progressive politics. Because Clinton is inconsistent with their values and desires. And Trump is the only real option.

So why was Clinton so far ahead before?

Well, there are a number of factors in my opinion that explain this.

Firstly, Clinton got a much bigger ‘bounce’ in the polls from her convention. It was better managed, had excellent speakers in prime-time, stayed on message and included a positive roll-out of the candidates biography.

Secondly, Trump’s campaign has only recently started becoming more ‘professionalized’. Stories from the last month abound regarding the GOP nominee finally coming around to political reality and starting to do things ‘normal’ candidates would have been doing for ages. Running ads, hiring more staff, ramping up fundraising, building a get out the vote operation, investing in analytics and data. All these are starting to slowly pay dividends for Trump.

Lastly, Clinton has had a shocker. Vision of her collapsing and having to be lifted into a secret service van, stories about her pneumonia, vague intimations of shadiness regarding health disclosure, the ‘gaffe’ about Trump supporters. All these stories take their toll to one extent or another. And so while she has been recuperating in New York, Trump has been out campaigning hard. That is reflected in the polls.

So what happens now?

I think this will be a close election. But if I were a betting man I would still put my money on Clinton. Polls go up and down, news cycles fluctuate from positive to negative, events shake things up. There are still eight weeks of hard campaigning left. Elections can be won and lost in a lot less. So don’t fly off the handlebars and abandon all hope quite yet. But don’t expect a crushing landslide either. Both of those things would be improbable. And by their very nature, improbable events are unlikely to happen. My money is on a small Clinton victory powered by minorities and college-educated white voters and secured by victories in the traditional ‘Blue Wall’ democratic heartland and the affluent suburbs of Northern Virginia.