If Clinton hasn’t improved her polling within about two weeks i’m going to start to worry. But does that mean she is going to lose? Not necessarily. And here is why.

Clinton is currently predicted to win, even taking into account the rise in Trump’s support nationally. That is because the national polls only really matter as an indication of state voting patterns. Winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college is very rare, but it does happen. Ask Al Gore.

Getting to 270 electoral votes is the name of the game. The reason I am optimistic even at this sad juncture is that it is still easier to get to 270 Electoral Votes if you are Clinton. Solidly Democratic states like California, New York and Massachusets where there is little to no chance of a Trump victory are almost certain to deliver Clinton 191 electoral votes. These states have voted Democratic in most cases since 2000. And that isn’t likely to change.

In addition to these there are five states currently considered ‘battlegrounds’ where historical precedent and current polling leads me to believe the former Secretary of State will win. These are Minnesota(16), Wisconsin(10), Michigan(16), Pennsylvania(20) and Virginia(13).

Lets take these in order.

Minnesota 

Current polls have Clinton up by 4 in this state. This number is obviously not stellar. However, when one considers that Trump has never taken the lead in a single poll of Minnesota i feel fairly confident that this one will end up in the blue column, as it has done for many cycles before.

Wisconsin

This is one of the states where Trump is making a big push. Even though Clinton currently leads by 4 the theory goes that white, male working-class voters without college degrees will power Trump to victory. Like Minnesota, Wisconsin has a small minority population with comparatively few African-American or Hispanic voters. This suits Trump quite well, as those voters seem to despise him according to every available metric. But Wisconsin also has a large population of college-educated White voters and the suburban voters who still remain highly sceptical of the Trump phenomenon. This is one reason why Trump has yet to lead in a single poll of the state, and why i don’t see it turning Red this November.

Michigan

Clinton is up in this state too, by 3-5 points if polls are to be believed. Notice a pattern? This state is fertile ground for the Trump message in many ways. Few places in America have been more hollowed-out by the death of the ‘old economy’ than Michigan. If the Trumpian narrative is to work anywhere, it should be here. What is more, Trump has in fact led in Michigan according to polls. Unfortunately for him this was only twice, once over a month ago in an Ipsos survey (reasonably trustworthy) and most recently in a Survey Monkey poll. Survey Monkey is garbage. I don’t believe them. I won’t go into the intricacies, sufficed to say i don’t think they do good work. Even taking these polls into account, the average comes out in Clinton’s favor by about 3 points. There is also a very large African-American population in Michigan, especially in cities such as Detroit (Motown, anyone?) which is not helpful for Trump. I would say a win here for the Human Hairdo is more likely than in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but not by much.

Pennsylvania 

Not going to happen. Every cycle, the Republicans think they can get Pennsylvania. But their plans always seem to founder when they remember that Philadelphia exists. The City of Brotherly Love has a large African-American population and a significant college educated population. Both of these are key groups Trump is failing to persuade. Even if he could counter-act the problems he has with these two groups with huge support from working class white voters, he has another problem. His numbers with Women (You know, the ones that make up half the population? That ‘Minority’?) are just terrible. And there are many such people in the sprawling suburbs around Philadelphia. Trump has made a concerted push to win over this particular demographic recently, to little discernible effect. Again, Trump has yet to win a poll in Pennsylvania. Clinton is ahead by about 4-6 points as far as polling goes. Funny that.

Virginia

The Old Dominion is an interesting one, and I must admit I am a bit surprised by its performance. It used to be reliably Republican until Obama flipped it in 08. Now it seems even safer than many of the states listed above. But when we look at the makeup of the state this is less surprising. There has always been a large African-American population in Virginia. That is not a good sign as far as Trump is concerned. Even worse for him though is the fact that in recent years as Washington has grown its suburbs have spilled over the state border and into Virginia, injecting large numbers of comparatively affluent suburban and black voters into the electorate. Virginia also has several large and prestigious Universities and a large population of college-educated voters, particularly in the north of the state. All these factors help explain why Clinton is between 4 and 6 points ahead in surveys, and why Trump has yet to come first in a single poll here. It seems fairly unlikely to me he will be able to reverse this trend and win come November.

So where does that leave us?

Those five states, plus the 191 ‘safe’ Democratic votes give us 266 votes that can plausibly be put in the Blue column. That means she only needs four more electoral votes to secure a majority. This is the crucial factor in my mind. Because Trump and Clinton are essentially tied right now in Florida(29), North Carolina (18), Iowa(6) and Nevada (6). The race is also very tight in Ohio (18), although if you had to put money on it now you would probably back Trump in that state. No Republican has won the presidency without Ohio. Ever. Not once. It tends to trend marginally more to the right than the national average, so it shouldn’t be surprising that in a close election Trump is ahead here. But no Republican has won without Florida since 1922, so Trump’s performance there is equally important to watch. Secretary Clinton can win the election by taking any one of the states above. Trump, on the other hand, needs to win ALL of them. That makes Clinton’s life a lot easier, and Trump’s a lot harder. What is more, winning a large state like Florida and its 29 electoral votes can counteract stuff-ups elsewhere on the map. It gives Clinton some margin for error while affording Trump none.

 

Consistency Matters 

Polling, particularly public polling, is an inexact art. But when you start getting the same number over and over again, as we do with Clinton’s polling in the swing states, it is worth taking notice. Even if that number is not totally accurate it can be instructive of trends and relative strength. The consistency of the polls in places like Virginia and Wisconsin right now should trouble Trump as it shows he has a very narrow avenue for victory that requires many factors aligning in his favor. Clinton, by contrast, has a variety of ways to mathematically put together 270 electoral votes not dependent on her performance in any one geographic region or any one demographic bloc.

Is this Clinton’s Nadir?

This analysis is also predicated on the assumption that this is the ‘new normal’. But if this is Clinton’s political low-water mark, the map could look very different. Even a movement of one or two percent in the national polling towards Clinton could put new states on the table for her that we were talking about only a few weeks ago and where Trump is still comparatively weak like Georgia or Arizona. A lot depends on whether this is the new reality of public perception or a passing phase caused by bad news coverage for Clinton.

Only time will tell, but right now i am increasingly persuaded that even in a 50-50 election the map favors Clinton, and allows her more chances of forming a winning coalition.