It may seem like elections are a fight about competing answers to questions of national importance. More taxes or less? Less wars or more? Abortion, yes or no? The entrenched positions, the binary opposites and the false dichotomy’s abound.

But this isn’t actually the case. Elections are battles about what question we are actually asking. They are about the conversation itself.  Is the question ‘how can we grow the economy?’ or ‘How can we make our economy more equal?’. Which one of those you pick will determine which candidate wins. If its just about growth, the Republicans will win that argument. If its about fairness, the Democrats will win. Its just how it works. Same goes for a host of other issues. Is the question on taxes about fairness or liberty? Fairness, Democrats win. Liberty, Republicans win.

Imagine your house is falling apart. Imagine everything needs to be fixed. If your question is ‘Who can make the lights work again?’ you go for the electrician. He is always banging on about how important wiring is and how great electricity can be. Whereas if your question is ‘Who can help me have a shower this morning?’ you are going to call the plumber. Ok so the analogy isn’t perfect but you get the picture.

The latest manifestation of this phenomenon is on the question of foreign policy. It seems if you ask voters right now ‘who would you trust to run American foreign policy?’ Clinton wins by a large margin. Conversely, if you ask the same people ‘who do you trust to fight Terrorism?’ Trump comes out ahead. Of course they are talking about functionally the same thing.

So how will the bombings in New York and New Jersey effect the race? That really depends on what question it causes the media to run with and what concerns it raises for people. If it makes them want a serious foreign policy solution that focuses the race on competence and knowledge and relationships with world leaders, Hillary will clean up.

On the other hand, if it rouses the populace to righteous fury  and makes them want to just start blowing things up and to hell with the consequences Trump is the only choice.

Events are the bane of the political strategist. The best laid plans of mice and men seldom survive contact with the roiling chaos that is our modern world. Ask George W. Bush. He entered the White House with a whole agenda of domestic reform and withdrawal from the field of ‘nation building’ abroad typified by President Clinton’s policy in the Balkans. And then September 11, 2001 happened.

So how will these acts of criminality and terrorism effect the race?

It depends on what questions you ask.