As i have often stressed here, the Congress is really the determining factor in whether a President’s agenda gets off the ground or not. The Democrats taking back control of the Senate would be a great help to a Clinton presidency, and a great obstacle to a Trump presidency. But what are the chances?

There are 34 seats currently up for re-election in the Senate. Senators serve six year terms, so this crop was elected in 2010. Elections like 2010 which fall in non-presidential years have a generally whiter and older electorate, favoring the Republican party. So although many of these seats are not in competitive states, the fact that candidates are facing a headwind relative to 2010 means there are still quite a few in play. Possibly enough to re-take control of the chamber. So where are the Democrats best hopes? Lets look down the list in order of plausibility.

Wisconsin- Feingold v Johnson

If the Democrats can’t win in Wisconsin, they should really just give up now. Feingold is helped by the much stronger turnout among the states large college population in Presidential elections, making the electorate he faces in 2016 much more favorable than the last time he faced Johnson i 2010. Johnson has also not distinguished himself in the senate the way one would hope. Feingold is also on the progressive wing of the Democratic party, able to plausibly make the case for the support of the Sanders voters who helped Bernie out in the primary.

Illinois- Kirk v Duckworth

Illinois is a very Democratic state. But such was the Republican wave of 2010 that it reached even here, and now that it has receded Senator Mark Kirk has been left stranded far from home. He is that rarest of things, a moderate Republican. Over recent months he has been struggling heroically to try and distance himself from Donald Trump, who stands approximately zero chance of winning Kirk’s state. Duckworth is ahead and has been for some time. Kirk is not disastrously behind, and could still win it, but at this stage he seems headed for defeat. According to most demographic models Duckworth should win by 10, so Kirk is already out-performing his party in the state considerably. But i’m not sure it will be enough.

Indiana- Bayh v Young

Indiana is more conservative than the either Illinois to the west or Ohio to the est. Part of this is how it was settled, with more colonists coming from the south than many of its neighbors. In any case, it is not the easiest territory for a Democrat these days. The Democratic candidate is Evan Bayh, former Governor and Senator from Indiana. His father was also Senator for nearly twenty years. In a well-funded campaign he is currently running well ahead of Young, who is also racing to fill the seat vacated by retiring Senator Dan Coates. Polls have Bayh up by 7, and with his high levels of name recognition and positive approval ratings i don’t see that changing without something going badly wrong. This should be another pickup for the Democrats.

Pensylvania- Toomey v McGinty

Pat Toomey was the head of the Club For Growth, a right-wing advocacy organisation and lobby group. In 2010 he won the Senate seat in moderate Pennsylvania that had been held by liberal Republican Arlen Specter, Specter himself having been knocked off after switching parties by Joe Sestak in the primary. But as his party has moved further and further to the right, re-election for Toomey has become increasingly dubious. It was always going to be a bit of a slog for a fairly conservative Republican in a state like Pennsylvania, but he has been unable to stake out more moderate positions on a lot of issues, and McGinty is currently edging ahead in polls. I would say this one is a tossup. If one candidate or the other over-performs their Pennsylvania polls in the Presidential election, it could swing the state one way or another. As of now i think this one is much too close to call, but if i had to bet i would put my money on McGinty just because of the demographics of the electorate.

Missouri- Kander V Blunt

Incumbent Senator Roy Blunt is facing a challenge from Missouri Secretary of State and veteran Jason Kander. Kander is a pretty good candidate for what is a fairly red state. But although he was once quite close to Blunt, he is now behind by about 5. I would say its about as likely that Kander can win here as it is that Kirk can win in Illinois. Both are facing fairly hostile state electorates with in-built demographic disadvantages. But by the same token, both are only behind by about 5. That is not an insurmountable gap. I would put Missouri down towards the bottom of lists of possible Democratic gains.

North Carolina- Burr v Ross

Deborah Ross (Member of the North Carolina state legislature) is challenging sitting senator Richard Burr. And while this may seem quixotic considering how she has been polling for much of the race, there are some factors currently in her favor. As i have observed here before, Trump is not doing so well in North Carolina. The Republican governor is quite unpopular, and is also running for re-election in a close race. Democrats are also putting more resources into North Carolina, both on a presidential level and down ballot, than has often been the case. If the Democrats are having a good night, Ross could pull off something of an upset if recent polls are to be believed. She has closed to within less than five, possibly even into a dead heat. With the riots and protests in North Carolina over recent days  i wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see the polling move decisively in favor of one candidate or another. Such events often serve to focus voters and sharpen contrasts. A good night for the Democrats could quite easily include a win in North Carolina. But there are so many moving parts to this race that i’m skeptical of people calling odds.

Florida- Rubio v Murphy 

Marco Rubio is running for the Senate. Again. After much wringing of hands following his failed Presidential bid, he decided not to leave politics after all. Apparently he doesn’t even like the senate. Which makes it seem rather unsporting of him to run again and deprive Representative Murphy of the chance to be Senator, a job he at least seems to want. In any case Rubio seems to be cruising towards re-election, ahead as he is by 8 points in recent polls. Again, not a crushing lead. But solid enough for me to conclude this is not likely to be a Democratic gain unless they are having a really, really good night. Rubio is a big enough name that he is unlikely to be swamped by any anti-Trump backlash. On the contrary, Trump is ahead in Florida right now, so it should come as no surprise that Rubio is also doing quite well. But Florida is still a tempting target for the Democrats. Its a swing state, its quite moderate, its really big with a lot of fundraising potential and most of all winning here would effectively put Marco Rubio back in the cupboard for a cycle at least.

So those are the most swinging of the swing-seats. A few look certain to go from blue to red this November. And while every seat helps, getting to a majority allows you to fill the senatorial leadership and set the agenda. So keep an eye on the Presidential election, by all means. But don’t forget, it’s in the Senate and House of Representatives that much of the governing gets done.