Since the first Presidential debate Hillary Clinton’s polling numbers nationally and in the key swing states have improved dramatically. Polls show her with a lead of anything from 5 to 12 points nationally, up from about even on the eve of the first debate. That is an emphatic victory.
Usually the results for the Senate and the Presidential elections are highly correlated. For instance, if your guy is tanking in North Carolina it drags down support for your other candidates down the ballot. For the last few weeks there has been a disconnect, with the polls showing Clinton gaining ground and momentum without much movement happening in the Senate races that will determine the makeup of that chamber during the next Presidency.
But over the last few days the polling has started to converge, making the chances of Clinton having a friendly (or more accurately, less hostile) Senate to deal. The Democrats need four more seats to take back the Senate, assuming Clinton keeps the Whit House in their hands. Two independents (Maine and Vermont) caucus with the Democrats, and the Vice President can vote to break ties in the senate. So if you have control of the white house you only need 50, not 51 out of 100. They have 44 seats and need at least 48, while there are six states that seem like they could plausibly go blue. So lets have a look.
Illinois +1
This one looks pretty over. Mark Kirk (Republican) was elected in the 2010 Republican wave and was always going to have a hard time winning in a Presidential year in very liberal Illinois.
Wisconsin +1
Basically the same story as Illinois. Russ Feingold (Democrat) has been ahead in the race to take back his Senate seat from incumbent Ron Johnson. What makes this more interesting is that Johnson defeated Feingold back in 2010. The rematch has not been kind to Johnson. He has been behind all month by between 5 and 12 points. So i feel pretty confident in giving this one away to the Democrats in our calculations.
The next races are less easy to call. But that is 2 for the Democrats so far, and they need 4 to take back technical control and six to take back control in their own right, without the support of independents or the necessity of having Tim Kaine constantly waiting in the wings to prop up the majority.
Indiana +1?
By the numbers this one really should be in the above category. As mentioned before, Bayh was in the Senate representing the ‘Hoosier State’ (really, that is a thing) from 1992 to 2011. He has been ahead for basically the entire race, but his lead has narrowed over the last month from the mid-high teens to the mid single digits. That could just be a normal narrowing of the race. A 5 point win for a Democrat in Indiana is nothing to sneeze at. But the trajectory troubles me, polling of the state is scarce and Bayh has had some problems in the news recently surrounding contact with finance industry lobbyists during his previous tenure. So i will give it to the Democrats, but without the same feelings of certainty as Illinois and Wisconsin.
Missouri +1
Missouri is pretty reliably Republican in Presidential contests. But it also has a history of electing Democrats to statewide office. For example, the current Governor, his likely Democratic successor and the Democrat who occupies the other Senate Seat (the one not up for election this year). Here Senator Roy Blunt was thought to be a lock for quite some time. But Democrat Jason Kander, his challenger, seems to have gained a lot of ground over October. It seems plausible to me that Blunt has suffered from the terrible October that has dragged down Trumps numbers. Kander is ahead in the last 3 polls of the state and Democrats seem to be moving money and resources from Ohio (where they no longer have much chance of knocking-off Republican Rob Portman) to Missouri. This all leads me to think the Democrats will probably pick this one up.
New Hampshire +1
Sen Kelly Ayotte (Republican) is locked in a re-election battle with Democratic Governor of New Hampshire Maggie Hassan. This has been a tossup for a while, but Ayotte has had trouble regarding The Donald. First she endorsed him, then said he was an example to the youth, then took that back, the dis-endorsed him. That is not terribly demonstrative of the kind of decisiveness and reliability people are looking for in a Senator. Which is a shame, because Ayotte is one of the precious few genuinely moderate Republicans left. Her lead has ebbed away, slipping behind Hassan in the last three polls taken since mid-October. At this stage i think its likely Hassan will win the seat. So thats another +1
Pennsylvania
Those of you keeping score will note that we are now at four, the minimum number for keeping the chamber. This is important, because the remaining three close states can serve to counter-balance an unexpected loss in one of the above states or push the margin from contingent (though probably still reliable) to outright control of the Senate. So, the Keystone State. Once again, the incumbent (Sen. Pat Toomey) is a Republican elected in the wave of 2010 to a seat in a fairly liberal state who is now in trouble with the younger and less white Presidential-season electorate. Toomey and his challenger Katie McGinty have traded leads for the entire cycle. Right now McGinty appears to be ahead, but by only 2 or 3 points.Clinton has a huge turnout machine in Pennsylvania and a big advertising presence. This logistical advantage for the Democrats could be crucial in a close race. Add to this the fact that state-wide Republicans have had a hard time recently and this could very easily be another Democratic gain.
Nevada
The race keep Harry Reid’s seat in Democratic hands had not been going terribly well up until now. Republican Joe Heck was ahead of Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in all but a handful of polls. But recently the Democrats polling has improved. Add to this the big advantage in early voting the Democrats seem to be enjoying in Nevada right now and it seems likely that the seat will stay blue
North Carolina
This is the least likely of the possible Democratic pickups. Clinton is ahead here, but the Republican Senate candidate Richard Burr seems to be over-performing Trump’s numbers in the Tar-Heel state. I think the GOP will maintain this seat, but if Trump’s popularity continues at this low ebb and if the Senate and Presidential voting patterns continue to converge, Democrat Deborah Ross could end up pulling an upset. The Democrats and the Clinton campaign are pouring money into this swing state, and if the trend-line continues Clinton could end up with some quite healthy coat-tails with which to drag Ross to victory.
So there it is. The Democrats have a chance in 8 seats. They seem sure to win 2, and they only need 4. This gives them a lot of ways not only to take back the Senate, but to take back the senate with a working majority. The House will almost certainly stay in Republican hands. But two out of three ain’t bad.
The Bull Moose 