It is pretty universally accepted right now that whatever window Trump may once have had for winning this election is now firmly closed. But what scale of victory should we expect?

To answer this i’m going to look at three kinds of states that will make up the likely Clinton coalition.

The Big Blue Wall

These are the states that have gone Democratic since at least 2004. They total about 240 electoral votes. Most of them are very solidly Democratic states like California, New York and Illinois. Having such a large base means that Hillary only needs to win about 30 more electoral votes to win. They are off the table for Trump and will form the basis of any Clinton victory.

Swing States

The second group are this seasons swing states. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. These are the states that have been competitive for most of the general election campaign. But Trump’s nosedive in the polling and Clinton’s subsequent 7-12 point lead in surveys has put virtually all of them in jeopardy. Trump seems unlikely to win in any of them, with his best results an even showing in Iowa. This is a comon phenomenon in Presidential contests. When one candidate is clearly winning they push the electoral map back into their opponents territory and put new states in play. What were once swing states now seem clearly lost to the underdog. For instance, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada which were once talked about as possible Trump pickups now seem very much in the Democratic column.

A good night for Clinton is picking up most, if not all, of these states. She only really needs a few to get to 270, but if she can seep them she’ll end up with about 300 electoral votes and keep Trump at 200. That would not only be an inarguable mandate for her but a repudiation of Trump.

 

Red States where Trump is Vulnerable 

If you hear about the states in this category something is going very, very wrong in the Kingdom of Trump. These are areas that are reliably Republican where the GOP Nominee is trailing his party’s historical performance. Places like Georgia, Texas, Utah, Missouri, South Carolina, Indiana and Alaska. These are safe Republican states whose loss would be a damning indictment of the failure of the Trump candidacy. Texas, in particular, is basically the only really big state the Republicans usually win. Removing it from their electoral coalition would gut the parties Presidential prospects and turn them into a regional grouping of the deep south and plains states, rather than a nationally competitive party.

And it isn’t as unlikely as it would usually be. Trump is only up by 2-5 points in Alaska, Texas, Utah and South Carolina. In Georgia he seems to be running even with Clinton.

So how likely is it that we see a real Clinton landslide? I wouldn’t bet on it. But we could easily be only one scandal away from talking about a Democrat winning Texas. Interesting times indeed.