I have written before about why it is unlikely the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives, as well as why this chamber and its leadership are important. But lately a question has been bothering me.

What exactly is Paul Ryan going to do after the election? There are a few factors that make this an interesting question for me.

1. Paul Ryan Really, Really wants to be President 

If you don’t think he is positioning himself for a run in 2020 or beyond you are out of your mind. He was on the ticket as Mitt Romney’s running mate in 2012 and since then his ambition only seems to have grown. His endorsement of Trump was tepid at best, which is a significant risk considering Trump has staged a pretty sucessful takeover of the Republican party to the extent that virtually all the ‘never trump’ crowd have now caved and supported him. This decision only really makes sense if you imagine he is positioning himself as the leader of the non-Trump wing of the party in preparation for riding in on his white horse after Trump’s defeat. But there is a problem with that plan.

2. Being Speaker is a really, really terrible way to run for president. 

Otto von Bismarck, the Iron Chancellor himself, said that there were two things you never wanted people to see how you made. Laws and sausages. Well, the Speaker of the House is basically the sausage-maker in chief. Compromise is key in maintaining the speakers chair. But this cycle there is little that Republican voters like less than compromise. Which leads us neatly to my next point…

3. Nobody wants to be speaker right now

Even he had to be begged to take up the job. Really I should say no Republican. Nancy Pelosi would love to be speaker, but unfortunately for us all this isn’t likely to happen. John Boehner (the former speaker) made history by resigning, essentially because his caucus has become impossible to manage. There is a large sub-group of Republican members (known as the ‘Freedom Caucus’) unwilling to accept any real compromise on a host of issues from taxation to immigration. They made it so hard for Boehner to even pass a budget, much less make progress, that he resigned. Filling the job afterwards was a nightmare, as all the plausible candidates either declared their refusal to serve or later pulled out after media and party pressure because of their unsuitability. It really did become Ryan almost by default.

Just let that sink in for a second. The Speakership is one of the highest offices in the land, with huge powers and profile, and almost nobody of any consequence wanted it. Assuming Ryan loses 10-15 members in the upcoming ballot as the polls seem to suggest his problems will become even worse. Because although that is not a threat to his majority the most likely losses will be comparatively moderate members who are his kind of people while the arch-conservatives who are causing so many problems remain all but immune in their safe districts. Any problems Boehner had are likely to be exacerbated, especially considering they are likely to have to deal with a Democratic senate so compromise will be even more essential to prevent Chuck Schumer from just blocking all their legislation in the upper chamber.

What is more, his election is not a sure thing. While he seems likely to win a majority of Republican members and so be elected their leader in the chamber, to be elected Speaker you need a majority of the house. So if the 20-40 members who don’t like him refuse to support him for Speaker, Ryan would have to rely on Democrats preferring his leadership to no leadership at all. But i doubt he would do that, as it would be seen as the ultimate betrayal by many if not most Republicans.

So it would make a lot of sense for Ryan to resign as speaker for the benefit of his future popularity. In that event I honestly have no idea who might take the job. And that should concern everyone. No matter who is President, the Speaker performs a vital role in getting anything of any lasting consequence done.

What is more, they may well end up being the highest ranking elected official in the Republican party. That would give them  a tremendous leadership role in shaping the direction of one half of the two party system.

So what is Paul Ryan going to do after the election? I don’t know. But its going to be well worth watching.