This may sound like a strange admission for someone who maintains a blog about electoral politics but I’m really not terribly keen on predictions. While broad trends are easy to identify and extrapolate from,  once you get into the more granular territory below the banner headline everything becomes considerably more murky.

With this in mind I have waited as long as I can, but with the election less than 24 hours away and finding myself in New York I feel I must finally nail my colours to the mast, or else risk having my credentials as a political junkie revoked by the powers that be.

Because although it may be advisable for someone in my position to remain aloof, to pretend that your prognostications are part of some ethereal and ineffable schema known only to yourself this is sadly not the case. They are based on the same information available to you, dear reader, just run through the filter of my own admittedly considerable nerdishness.

So as I gaze across the street catching glimpses of City Hall through the passing trade and drinking what they are pleased to call coffee around these parts I thought I would at last take the plunge and place my bets.

The Presidential Election

It should surprise precisely none of you that I’m jumping on the consensus bandwagon for this one and predicting a Clinton victory. But lets get specific. It is a foregone conclusion right now that Clinton will win the states that make up the base of the Democratic electoral coalition at the Presidential level. Those are:

Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Washington D.C, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont and Massachusetts  

Trump is likewise guaranteed the safe Republican states that make up their coalition. Those being:

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennesee, Missisipi, Alabama, West Virginia and South Carolina

But neither of these lists are enough to get you in to the big house on Pennsylvania Avenue. So lets go to our third category, the all important swing states :

• Nevada
  • I’m giving this one to Clinton. Winning in Nevada hinges on your performance in Clark county, where Las Vegas and the overwhelming majority of the electors in the state are located. Democrats seem to have a huge lead in early voting on the state, even larger than in 2012. So it goes in the Democratic column. 
• Arizona
  • Arizona will likely stay Republican this cycle, as far as I can tell. Really it is only on this list for one reason: Hispanic voters may be driven to the polls in unprecedented numbers by their antipathy to Trump. Democrats usually win the Hispanic vote, of which there is much in the state of Arizona, but they also usually turn out at a lower rate than African-American voters. There is much speculation that this could change. Arizona would be one of the states most vulnerable to such a phenomenon. But I don’t think it terribly likely. So it goes to Trump.  
• Utah
  • I’m also giving this one to Trump. Utah isn’t a swing state, strictly speaking. But conservative independent Evan McMullin is one of Utah’s native sons, running as an alternative to Trump. He has made significant inroads with the states large and conservative LDS electorate taking votes that would probably otherwise go to Trump. For that reason a Clinton or even a McMullin win here is not out of the realms of possibility. But i wouldn’t bet on it. 
• Alaska
  • Again, this one is here because polling indicates it is a comparatively close race. Only about 3-5 points separate the two party nominees. That being said, I will be floored if Clinton wins here. Alaska is one of the most conservative states in the union by most measures. But if Clinton out-performs her polls by a few points she could take it. A 2-3 point polling error is not unheard of. But i’m predicting Trump will take first prize. 
• Colorado
  • Colorado has become considerably more liberal in recent years, helped by an influx of Hispanic migrants and the growth of metropolitan communities in the states big cities like Denver. I feel fairly safe calling this one for Clinton.
• New Mexico 
  • Again, Clinton should win here. Especially if Hispanic turnout is higher than expected. 
• Iowa
  • Iowa has been close all season. But demographically the terrain favors Trump. The state is overwhelmingly white, rural and with a high non-college educated and churchgoing population. But it also has a history of electing practical and populist progressives like Tom Harkin and Tom Vilsack as well as a characteristic Midwestern antipathy towards Trump’s bombastic and vitriolic tone. But I’m calling it for Trump. 
• Ohio
  • Although considered the prototypical swing-state, Ohio actually trends slightly to the right of the national electorate. That is why no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio. Ever. Not once. So Trump should take heart at his performance. I think he will take Ohio, powered to victory by his good performance amongst non college-educated white voters. That being said, the state is still on a knife-edge. Before Clinton’s loss of about 3 points around the time of the latest FBI Leak fiasco I would have been inclined to give it to her. Now it seems to me Trump has the edge in this contest. 
• Pennsylvania
  • They call it the Keystone State, and this cycle Pennsylvania seems to be living up to its name. The theory behind Trump was always that he would win in areas of the industrial mid-west and north-east that Republicans usually have trouble playing in. Pennsylvania was always going to be the place this had to work. But he has been consistently behind by at least 5 points for months now. So in the blue column it goes. And without Pennsylvania it is very hard to see a winning coalition for Trump. 
• Virginia
  • Virginia used to be a Red state. For gods sake, it was the heart of the Confederacy, the jewel in the crown of the South. Obama winning it in 08 was a story people. And now its so safely in Clinton’s column it may as well be Wisconsin. Trump is about as popular in the leafy, affluent suburbs of Northern Virginia as the plague. It will go for Clinton, or else you will see a livestream of me literally eating my own hat. 
• North Carolina
  • The Tar Heel state once looked very favorable for Clinton. But since she lost some momentum over the last week it has looked increasingly dicey for the former Secretary of State. I’m inclined to play it safe and give this one to Trump. But if i had to pick one state to watch as a bellweather, it would be this one. If Clinton has an unexpectedly good night, North Carolina could very easily go for her. But on the information available and based on its previous status as a safe Republican state before 2008 I’m giving it to Trump. 
• Georgia
  • We should not be talking about Georgia. Its Georgia. The fact it is even vaguely close is a savage indictment of Trumps performance with African-American voters, college educated White voters and Hispanics. Two of those groups are usually disasters for the GOP, but White people who went to university usually back the Red team. If Clinton wins here it is because she is having an absolute blowout. I’m giving it to Trump, because predicting a Democrat will win Georgia is…courageous shall we say? But the mere fact that such an event is not out of the question says very, very bad things about Trump’s chances overall. 
• Florida
  • Florida is a bit like Ohio in a couple of ways. Its a big state, its a swing state and it also trends slightly more Republican than the national average. That means in a very close election it should go Republican. That looks like what is happening, because no matter what people might wish this is indeed a close election. But its only by a couple of points. I could be wrong about this one folks, its a huge and diverse electorate down there with vast quantities of cash being pumped in to try and influence the outcome. Trump’s current projected margin in Florida is also within the margin of error for public polling, making a prediction here even more unreliable. I would not be at all surprised if we don’t see a winner declared here on election night. But i also don’t think its going to matter too much, because Clinton doesn’t need Florida to win. So I’m giving it to Trump. But if the available polling is wrong anywhere, my money is on here. 
• New Hampshire
  • New Hampshire is one of only two ‘swing states’ in the North East. I’m giving it to Clinton. Trump is doing better among the large white, working-class population of the state but it looks like it won’t be enough. 
• Maine
  • ‘Red AND Blue? Surely you must be mad!’ I hear you say. Well,  Maine is rather odd. Unlike most states it awards its electoral votes based on winners of its congressional districts. I think Trump will probably take one. The rest will go to Clinton. 

The Senate 

The Senate class of 2010 are up for re-election, their six year terms having expired. While I feel confident in predicting a Democratic victory at the presidential level, I have no such confidence in the Senate results. It seems to me about as likely that the Democrats will regain control as it is that the Republicans will keep it. This might perhaps edge towards a preference for Democratic ascendancy based on three factors. Firstly, 2010 was something of a high-water mark for the GOP, so defending the territory they were able to gain six years ago is now a somewhat tall order. Secondly, this is a Presidential year. And Presidential year electorates are usually younger and more diverse than mid-term electorates. That is a fancy way of saying that old white people are more reliable voters than younger and less white people. Thirdly, Clinton’s likely victory means that in a tie scenario the Democrats will effectively get one extra Senator in the person of Tim Kaine, as the Vice-Presidents main constitutional responsibility apart from being alive is to preside over the senate and break ties. 

But without further ado, lets run down the list of states where the Senators are up for re-election. Most of these are safe, in which case I won’t offer much commentary. 

• Washington
• Oregon
• California
• Nevada
  • Former Majority and then Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring. The race to fill his seat is between Republican Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto. Heck looked to have this one locked up for a while, but Cortez-Masto has made a considerable comeback, pulling just about even with him in the polls. I’m giving it to the Democrats and Cortez-Masto for two reasons. One, the Democratic advantage in terms of early voting seems so large that it could easily swing down-ballot races such as this. Secondly, in a close election organisation matters. And Harry Reid put together one of the most impressive political machines in the country based on the logistical and organisational support of the powerful service employee unions in Las Vegas. So in an even race, which this seems to be, those two factors lead me to believe the Democrat will have the edge. 
• Idaho
• Utah
• Arizona
• Colorado
• Alaska
• Hawaii
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Kansas
• Oklahoma
• Iowa
• Missouri
  • Democrat Jason Kander looked like he might pull off an upset and unseat incumbent Roy Blunt for a while, but the downturn in Clinton’s support seems to have doomed his chances. It is still not impossible, but its hard to beat the dual headwind of facing an incumbent and running in a state where the Democratic presidential nominee is losing by nearly double digits, even for an excellent candidate like Kander. He ran a good campaign, did all the right things, but I just don’t think it will be enough. 
• Arkansas
• Louisiana
• Wisconsin
  • I am personally very pleased to be able to say I think Russ Feingold will be returning to the Senate. He was knocked off by Ron Johnson in 2010, but the rematch seems to be favoring Feingold quite heavily. So that is one predicted pickup for the Democrats
• Illinois
  • The defeat of Illinois Senator Mark Kirk is a foregone conclusion at this stage. Challenger Tammy Duckworth is the unbackable favorite. Kirk was always an uncomfortable fit for the liberal voters of Illinois (and Chicago in particular), despite his position on the moderate fringe of the Republican party. Widely despised by his fellow Republicans and the Conservative base that seems to dominate the GOP these days, Kirk’s days in the ‘greatest deliberative body on earth’ seem numbered. So that’s another for the Dems. 
• Indiana
  • F. Scott Fitzgerald once famously wrote that ‘there are no second acts in American lives’. This seems to be sadly true of the current Indiana Senate race, where two term Governor, two term Senator and son of a Governor Mr. Evan Bayh appears headed towards defeat. He was persuaded to run again earlier this year when all the stars seemed in alignment. He had plenty of campaign money, he was well known and well liked and about 20 points ahead of his rival. But his support has consistently slipped away until now he and his challenger Todd Young appear virtually tied. Considering the momentum appears to be with Young, that Trump is ahead of Clinton in Indiana by several points and that the state is generally quite conservative I’m giving this one to the Repubicans. If Clinton was performing better nationally her coat-tails might be sufficient to get Bayh over the line. Or, more accurately, her poor performance in some areas would not be such an albatros around his neck. He also did himself no favors in forgetting the address of a condominium he owns (not exactly man of the people material) and the exposure of his close relationship to financial industry lobbyists during his previous tenure has also redounded to his detriment. Bayh could still pull it off, but i wouldn’t bet on it.   
• Kentucky
• Alabama
• Florida
  • Marco Rubio is running for the Senate after all. The plan was that his name would be on the ballot right now for President. But some guy named Donald took all his marbles, so he is going back to the Senate  despite having told everyone how boring he found the job and that he didn’t want it anymore. The people of Florida appear to be supporting him in this display of naked political ambition. Maybe there is some kind of reverse psychology at work, because Rubio looks certain to get the job.
• Ohio
  • Over the last several months Rob Portman has built a huge lead over former Democratic governor Ted Strickland. It once looked like an even contest, but Portman was able to distance himself from Trump and is now hugely over-performing Trump’s numbers in that state. Its not surprising really, Portman is a canny politician who has been in Ohio state politics forvever and thus has his own independent brand. He has publicly bucked the national party several times, has huge financial resources with which to fight his campaign and the political and organisational support of Ohio Governor John Kasich, whom you may remember as one of this years Presidential also-rans. I’m confident giving this one to the GOP. 
• Georgia
• South Carolina
• North Carolina
  • Again, this one looked promising for the Blue Team. But right now the Republican incumbent Richard Burr seems to be beating Democratic challenger Deborah Ross. But as in the Presidential, if Clinton starts over-performing her polls when the results come in expect this to be one of the places an upset could occur. Burr is only ahead by a few points so his victory is far from assured, but considering the stability of that lead over the last several days and the history of North Carolina electing conservatives I’m inclined to give it to Burr. That being said, I would say this race is highly correlated with the Presidential results in North Carolina. If Clinton wins the state unexpectedly it could give Ross exactly the sort of boost she needs. 
• Maryland
• Pennsylvania
  • Senator Pat Toomey’s electoral prospects are looking decidedly bleak. Despite his best efforts he has been unable to distance himself from Trump sufficiently in the minds of the key suburban and minority voters of his large and diverse state. This race is somewhat like Illinois in that Toomey is a bit of an uncomfortable fit for his state.  Challenger Katy McGinty has a stable and consistent lead of about 5 points. What is more, Clinton is very likely to win the state which will make it all the harder for Toomey to convince Clinton voters to split their ticket and give him their support for the Senate. So I’m giving this one to the Democrats with a reasonable degree of confidence. 
• New York
• Vermont
• New Hampshire
  • This one is tricky. New Hampshire is notoriously fickle in electoral terms. People won’t vote for you until you have had coffee in their living rooms half a dozen times and given at least three speeches at their workplace on your plans for the new economy and manufacturing jobs. The polling results are mixed, with both candidates trading leads for months now mostly in the margin of error. I’m giving it to the Democrats for two reasons. Firstly, I think Clinton will win the state at the presidential level would give a slight edge to challenger Maggie Hassan against incumbent Kelly Ayotte. Secondly, Ayotte has had a devil of a time trying to figure out just how to deal with Trump being the front-man of her party right now.  Make no mistake, I’m going out on a bit of a limb here . The most recent polls actually show Ayotte ahead. She has a high profile locally and is basically the last remaining Republican Senator who could actually be described as moderate so there is good reason to think the voters of New Hampshire might return her. But i have a hunch Hassan will get over the line. This is the call I’m least confident in, but I’m nearly finished with my second ‘coffee’ and feeling courageous. 
• Connecticut

To those of you keeping track, I’m crediting the Democrats with a  gain of four seats. Assuming Tim Kaine is around to break ties and the Independents caucusing with the Democrats (Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Maines Angus King) continue to do so those four would be sufficient to make Chuck Schumer the new Majority Leader for the Dems. But in order to gain outright control of the chamber without Kaine they would need one more.

This could plausibly come from either Indiana, North Carolina or Missouri. While I don’t think this likely, if Clinton over-performs her polls even slightly it is certainly possible. By the same token, if Trump does better than expected they could end up with less than four seats gained and a Republican congress. 

The House

As I have said previously, the House is essentially gerrymandered in favor of the Republican party. That being the case, I still expect the Democrats to gain about 12-15 seats from all the data I can find. This is important, because the gains will likely come from ‘moderate’ Republicans of the Paul Ryan type whose loss will further empower the radicals within the Republican caucus. 

In Summary

I think we will see a clear but modest Clinton victory, a 50-50 Senate controlled by the Democrats with the aid of the Vice-Presidency and a Republican House. And if you thought this wild, seemingly endless campaign was a strange beast just wait until you see that formulation try and govern.