1:15- Trump is all but certain to win the election at this stage. In the final analysis, he took Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from the Democratic column. And that was the ballgame. Parts of the Democratic coalition from ’08 and ’12 stayed home, and the white working class voters of the industrial Mid-West turned out in force. We are now living in the Age of Trump. For our sins.

11:30-Trump has taken Florida and Utah. It’s not really important anymore as the race is being fought out in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. But it bodes ill for Clinton’s fading chances of election.

11:13- If Trump wins Michigan, as appears to be certain at this stage, then it only takes one more state that was assumed to be in the Clinton camp to go for Trump in order for him to win. At this stage that seems sadly more likely to me. We are going to be talking about how this occurred for a long, long time.

11:12-Trump’s unexpectedly high levels of support in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada seem to be powering him towards victory.

10:42-Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona are the states to watch right now. Clinton needs to win Michigan and Wisconsin, while a win in Arizona could counteract an unexpected loss in either of those two.

10:31- I am highly alarmed at Michigan current performance. If Trump can win in Michigan after securing North Carolina and Florida, he could take the election.

10:26- Clinton has been project the winner in Virginia.

10:23- Clinton has pushed her lead in Virginia out to about 43,000 votes. That is less than might have been hoped, but is still a clear victory.

10:20- Trump has taken Ohio. That was expected. He has been ahead in the polls there for a long time now. So its not exactly news. But his margin of victory is higher than I expected. That could signal trouble for other states in the industrial mid-west.

10:16- Michigan is the next state to watch. Since Virginia appears to be somewhat secure now and Pennsylvania is holding Trump needs to win somewhere unexpected to get to 270 Electoral Votes. Michigan seems to be the best candidate. He is currently ahead, but with 26% reporting.

9:56- Clinton just took the lead in Virginia. We can all start to relax a little now. But not too much. There is evidence of higher than expected turnout in working class areas for Trump. If that starts to occur nation-wide states like Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin could get competitive, and that could upset our calculations somewhat.

9:51- Pennsylvania seems to be holding steadily for Clinton. This was always meant to be Clinton’s firewall. Without Pennsylvania it is very difficult for Trump to get to 270, regardless of his performance elsewhere.

9:41- So what really matters at this stage? There is a lot of sound and fury flying around right now online and on the airwaves. Much is being made of Trump’s strong performance in rural and working class areas, especially areas with large populations of ‘Reagan Democrats’. But the key places to watch are still Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. Remember that Clinton doesn’t actually need Ohio, Florida or North Carolina. But Virginia is vital. If Clinton loses Virginia, then you should start to panic. She is currently less than 10,000 votes behind in Virginia, after more than 3 million counted and with many votes still to count from the north of the state.

9:28- Democrat Jason Kander is currently ahead in the Missouri senate race. Winning there would help Democrats a great deal in their quest to regain control of the Senate.

9:16- There is currently much lighting of hair on fire going on right now. But is there really cause for that much alarm? For instance, Clinton is running one percentage point behind Trump in Florida. Florida And Florida trends about two points to the right of the national average. So we should expect a Republican winning in Florida by 1 point to lose the national vote by about the same margin, if not more. That would be in line with projections. Most of the discontent seems to be coming from Trump not tanking as badly as people thought in Virginia and ‘matching Romney’s numbers’. They seem to be forgetting that Romney lost. I think we will see Clinton pull ahead in Virginia as more votes from the large counties are counted.

9:12- Early results show Clinton ahead in Virginia by a considerable margin. That is mostly early votes, but its an encouraging sign.

9:06- Clinton is closing the gap in Virginia. The city of Richmond and the suburban centers of northern Virginia still have a lot of vote left to count. I think Virginia will still go for Clinton, but its looking a lot closer than i thought.

9:00- Clinton is currently ahead in North Carolina. Her lead is only about 1.1% with roughly half of the vote counted in that state, but that is encouraging for Clinton. Lets see if the lead holds.

8:47- It is important to remember that only 20% of the popular vote is currently in. There are a lot of people on TV currently nervously fretting about Trump’s performance. In 2004 it seemed for much of the early portion of the night like John Kerry was on his way to victory. Needless to say he was disappointed. So don’t get ahead of yourself and start despairing yet just because Trump’s early numbers are not terrible

 

8:40- Trump seems to be doing better than we thought amongst college educated white voters. He also appears to be meeting or exceeding Romneys performance with non-college eduacted Whites.

8:34- Clinton is currently behind in Virginia. But Arlington and Fairfax counties (which contain about a third of the states electorate) are yet to report, and they are the strongest Democratic areas by far. That should be enough to re-balance the current 44-51 deficit.

8:31-The Republican party will retain control of the house of representatives. At this stage it looks like about 12 seats have fallen to the Democrats. While that isn’t enough to imperil the GOP majority, it could very well imperil Ryan’s speakership.

 

8:24- Todd Young looks to have defeated Evan Bayh for the senate seat in Indiana. I think we can safely say this loss was a reaction to Bayh’s activities as a lobbyist since leaving the Senate.  Before that story really got going he looked to be a shoe-in. It seems like ‘lobbyist’ and ‘establishment’ are rather dirty words these days.

8:21- Trump is leading Clinton in Florida slightly less than one percent of the vote, with 88%  counted.

6:03- The first results should be in shortly. Although it will be a while before we know for certain it shouldn’t go too late. Most of the key states are in the East, so the polls there will be closed and the vote counted much sooner than, say, California.

5:45- Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway says she is concerned about not having the ‘support of the whole Republican infrastructure’. The sense of recrimination is already palpable. Make no mistake, the ‘stab in the back’ narrative is only just getting started.

5:31- Only 31% of voters surveyed by the exit polls have a favorable opinion of Trump. That is a key part of understanding why his bid for the White-house is foundering.

1:41- It has emerged that the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit in Nevada last night. They have alleged that there were irregularities in four polling places in Las Vegas. Basically they are arguing that the polling places were open longer than they should have been or that some people who arrived too were allowed to vote. Expecting more of this sort of thing.

1:27- John McCain has told reporters he isn’t and ‘will not’ talk about Donald Trump today. Thats important. He still has a lot of pull with Republicans and with right-leaning independents in general. Him saying that will give cover to less high profile officials and individuals to voice their antipathy or reservations regarding Trump without being hounded for disloyalty.

12:50- I am loathe to resort to such journalistic crutches ‘feeling’ and ‘atmosphere’ but this feels like a good day for Clinton. Even Fox News seems to be projecting an air of fatalistic resignation.

12:42- Trump’s plan seems to be to attempt to win Michigan in order to offset expected losses in Western states like Nevada. That isn’t totally crazy. Clinton’s lead in Michigan isn’t all that great. But it would require high turnout in the more rural and blue-collar areas of norther Michigan. Clinton would also need to get lower than expected turnout in more urban and metropolitan areas of the state. Personally i wouldn’t hold my breath.

 

Today is the day. After more than five hundred days of campaigning its time for the voters to deliver their decision and choose their leader. It may be a saccharine cliche at this point but it is true and worth remembering that the concept that one governs not by divine right but by the consent of the governed is the foundational principle of the United States.  Being able to pick your leader is a principle over which much blood has been spilled, and we should never become too jaded, cynical and nihilistic  to appreciate just how important that idea is.

I’m already feeling a little uncomfortable about my prediction that Trump will take Florida and North Carolina. Late polls I read last night and anecdotal evidence from this morning makes me think Clinton might take those two states after all. And if Trump fails to win either his metaphorical goose is well and truly cooked. Of those two states Florida seems more likely turn blue.