I keep coming across a theory put forward by my friends and echoed by the commentariat at large that Trump doesn’t actually want to be president, that this is all some kind of PR exercise wildly out-performing his own expectations. Perhaps that was true at one point, but i think that grossly underestimates the egomania of The Donald.

It seems pretty clear to me from his statements over the last week at least that he has imbibed deeply of the kool-aid. Like all con-men who persist  in their line of trade long enough, he has started to believe his own hype.

I picture MacTrump roving the wilds of Central Park near his high and crenelated tower, pressing on through mist and mystery and finding the three crones of legend. He will be Glamis! Cawdor! King hereafter! And he has swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

Hillary Clinton seems to be ahead in Florida. That, my friends very bad news indeed for he who would be King. Because no matter how you figure the maths right now, if Trump fails to win the Sunshine State it becomes very hard to get to the magic number.

Florida is one of the perennial swing states in American presidential politics. Once every four years vast resources are poured in to try and secure it. It has dashed the hopes of many an aspirant, most memorably Gore in 2000. But more than this, Florida is a bit odd. So lets take a closer look .

The most obvious reason for Florida’s importance is its size. It is the largest swing state. At 29 electoral votes, it is much larger than Pennsylvania (the next largest), and very much larger indeed than Ohio. So winning here can offset a lot of bleeding elsewhere.

But Florida is also demographically interesting. And to understand why we have to go back a little. Because until the and booms of the early 20th century Florida was effectively part of the South. Waves of migration from other states and countries have dramatically transformed its demography, so that now it is both one of the largest and one of the most diverse of states. So lets go through them from north to south, and remember these groups and places are all within the same jurisdiction. Their  heterogeneity is the reason Florida is so fascinatingly odd.

The Panhandle

Most northerly is the Florida panhandle. This is the place most like what Florida used to be. It is basically the South. Large numbers of white voters, particularly those of Scots-Irish descent. Demographically similar to the rest of the Southern states to which it is adjacent, it is a solidly Republican zone except for the state capital of Tallahassee. More on that later . It went for Rick Santorum when he was running against Romney and is fertile ground for such social-conservatives. Its important to remember tht this region is to some extent a relic population. The whole state used to like this. I have heard people there describe themselves as ‘Florida Crackers’. ‘Cracker’ being the derogatory term for rural, poor, working class white people in the south who have for most of American history had little or no political voice and barely two pennies to rub together. Many of them are descendants of those who first colonized the swampy, humid terrain of the state in far off days of yore. But in many parts of Florida they have been demographically overtaken by more recent arrivals. It is only in the Panhandle, and in other pockets between large population centers, that their writ still runs.

Black Voters

Florida also has a large African-American population, about 17%. This population is particularly dominant in cities such as Tallahassee, making them solidly Democratic. They also predominate in small, largely homogeneous communities scattered throughout the state, particularly in the north. These are often the legacy of the system of share-cropping and implicit segregation and are just as poor and just as plagued by generational unemployment. In this regard they have a lot in common with the poor whites who often live in the adjacent town. The antipathy of these two groups who share so much in terms of economic and social disadvantage is one of the enduring perversities of American politics. Florida’s black population gives the Democrats a strong basis on which to build their state-wide support.

Retirees

Florida, with its warm climate and comparatively cheap property has been a prime destination for retired Americans for years, particularly from the north-east. In fact, Florida has the highest percentage of over-65 voters in the country. They generally vote Republican, as do most older Americans, but are not as supportive of the sort of social-conservative populism that gets so much play in the Panhandle and with rural whites. They live mostly in communities on the outskirts of large cities in central and south-central Florida.

Suburban Voters 

Once someone built a railway into Florida, and discovered how cheaply land could be drained and unlocked for development, a huge rush of property speculation ensued. Though this has long since died down, that rush was what really started the demographic transition.  The rush of migrants led to the advent of cities like Orlando the large numbers of urban and suburban voters they now supply to the state. Service industries predominate, particularly the theme park industry and tourism. Suburban voters are quite moderate, not leaning particularly heavily Democratic or Republican.

Cuban Exiles

While most Hispanic voters in the country, and in Florida generally, vote Democratic the Cuban American population of Miami has historically been Republican and conservative. Remember that many Cuban Americans are either exiles or the children of exiles, not simply economic migrants. The experience of and inherited antipathy to the Communism of the Cuban government has powerfully shaped the culture of Cuban-Americans. Ever wonder why Marco Rubio is a Republican? Or why his political base is the city of Miami? Look no further. Although their loyalty to the Republican party appears to be eroding in the new generation, there is still a considerable divergence between Cuban-Americans and other Hispanic-Americans.

Miami

Miami is famous as one of the most culturally liberal parts of the country. It has a vibrant gay scene, many affluent voters and a large entertainment industry. It is, to be blunt, pretty much the opposite of the north of the state. It is also a large city, with Miami-Dade county being home to a large percentage of the voters both Republican and Democrat.

Hispanic Voters

I really don’t like the term ‘hispanic’. Its not terribly descriptive. Hispanic Americans may come from Puerto Rico, Mexico, Columbia, Guatemala, El Salvador or many other parts of the Americas. But they all get lumped in to one group, despite the very real linguistic and cultural differences between them. But unfortunately we must generalize to some extent, and there does appear to be some level of correlation between membership of the ‘hispanic’ bloc and voting intention. There are a great many Hispanic voters in Florida. And they mostly vote Democratic.

 

 

Really, Florida is three or four states in one, each with its own eccentricities and pathologies. Winning here requires mobilization, organization and support across a wide variety of demographic and geographical terrain. And win here you must, because the Sunshine State will likely determine the next President. Again.