Second Debate Wrap-Up

I have decided to save discussion of Donald Trump’s recorded conversation regarding women and the groping thereof to its own post. There is a lot to talk about there, and right now I want to get in to the second debate. But the problem is that the context of this debate is vital in assessing the aims and actions of both Clinton and Trump. So let me briefly paint that context for you.

Donald Trump is currently at the centre of perhaps the most damaging presidential election scandal since the Eagleton affair in the 70’s. More than a dozen officials and lawmakers in his own party have retracted their endorsement of him. For once the hackneyed phrase ‘condemned from all quarters’ actually applies. The only person I have seen make much of a defence is Sean Hannity, and even he heavily qualified his remarks. It is a conflagration of truly historic proportions, to the extent that there are calls on him to step down from senior Republican figures. So, having set the scene let’s talk about the debate.

So what were they trying to do?

Clinton’s maxim at this point should be ‘first do no harm’. She could also benefit from Napoleon’s recommendation to never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Basically just stand there and let him hang himself is the ideal scenario here. Virtually the entire media and political establishment are already piling on Trump, Clinton just wants to stay out of the way. Look Presidential, don’t lose your temper, don’t get knocked out.

Trump, on the other hand, has a whole host of problems he needs to try and solve. These can broadly be boiled down to three imperatives. Firstly, he must try to get past the horrific clobbering he is taking over the tape. Secondly, he must try to hold the base together and keep the party from totally disowning him. Third, if he wants to win the election he needs to make serious inroads with two voter groups; Women (particularly of the suburban variety) and white voters with college degrees. Needless to say white suburban women with college degrees are a particular problem.

So how did they do?

Again, let’s start with Clinton. I think she did well. In fact, I think on points she probably came out on top. She was focused, measured and effective in her criticisms and deflected most of Trump’s incoming fire. The old wound about the Emails played up a bit, but on the whole her performance was very sound. Which is exactly where you want to be right now if your name is Hillary Clinton. You don’t want to create a scene or a story that will overwhelm the disastrous coverage Trump is getting. I think Clinton was strongest when she was talking about herself and her biography. Because while Clinton is very well known, her early career and advocacy are not. Highlighting and contrasting that record with Trump’s will endear her to exactly the sort of voters she needs to deny Trump. So she did no real harm, looked Presidential and didn’t create a big story. That ticks all of our boxes.

And then there is Trump. To be honest I think Trump was more effective this time than he was in his first disastrous foray. He spoke more slowly, seemed more calm and rarely broke into the nasal upper register he so often deploys.  Clinton would attack him he would punch back with a barb about trade or ISIS or the ongoing Clinton email scandal. This was a much more effective strategy for Trump, more reminiscent of the first portion of the first presidential debate.

Unfortunately Trump is still labouring under the handicap of being medically unable to make sense for more than about ten seconds running. But this matters less if you just jump from one right-wing talking point to another. And when I say ‘right wing’ I don’t mean Republican. Because what we are seeing tonight is the Breitbartization of the Trump campaign. From the belligerent, counter-punching tone to the ‘jail Clinton’ and ‘Clinton is the Devil’ subject matter, Trump’s performance channelled the animus of the far-right news organisations and those who read them. I’m sure he’ll get rave reviews over there.

But while I saw a lot from Trump that I would like if I were a populist conservative, I saw very little I thought I would like if I were a white woman in suburban Philadelphia or Orlando. He may have rallied the base and staunched some of the bleeding, but he did nothing to help secure the election. With conservatives but no moderate suburban voters, he loses.

What is more, his defence of his scandalous utterances was laughable. Apparently it was ‘locker-room talk’. Leaving aside the fact it happened on a bus, I’m not entirely sure why he thinks the location of the speaker is important. So that made no sense. Then he just said he was ashamed of it, but that he would destroy ISIS. His defence was literally that he would destroy ISIS. That isn’t going to butter any bread. So in terms of killing the scandal he gets no points.

So he didn’t disarm the tape scandal, he didn’t give moderates anything to reassure them about his candidacy, but he did reassure the base. Unfortunately for him that isn’t nearly enough.

Second Debate Wrap-Up

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