The final Presidential debate of 2016 will shortly be upon us, the final set-piece battle of the campaign. With that in mind, lets take a moment to examine the metaphorical terrain.

The polling for Trump can best be described as dire. Horrific would also suffice. Any word basically denoting impending catastrophe would serve quite nicely, to be honest. Remember all those nice swing states we were talking about? Ohio? North Carolina? Virginia? Florida? Pennsylvania? Iowa? Arizona? New Hampshire?

Gone. All such horses were last seen bolting headlong from the Republican stable at top speed.  Baring an absolutely historic reversal of fortune for the Clinton campaign she will be elected.

So the dynamics of the race have not changed so much as solidified. Clinton must first do no harm. She must not to anything that risks throwing away her lead. Playing for time at this point in the game is an entirely acceptable strategy. She has everything to lose, and very little left to gain.

That is because once Trump loses voters the marginal electors you are trying to persuade to change from Trump to Clinton become more and more committed. This effectively puts a floor on Trumps support, currently looking to be about 39 or 40 percent. These are the people who are die-hard Republicans or Trump-enamored independents. It is reasonable to expect they will deliver most of the remaining states to Trump by fairly solid margins, with the possible exceptions of Georgia and even Texas that are teetering historically close to swing-state status.

So Clinton is already pretty much at the zenith of what is practically achievable in terms of electoral performance. Grinding Trump further into the dust has low returns on effort at this stage. Much better to try and maintain your position and work on the way Hillary is perceived by the electorate.

Trump on the other hand is trailing badly in the final minutes of the game. It is now or never time. If he has a Hail Mary pass to throw, expect to see it in the debate. His target is the same as it was if he wants to win: College graduates and women. They are the easiest targets for him, and the groups he most needs to persuade.

But i am not convinced he is going to go for the win. I think the time when that was a plausible avenue is long past. One of the primary requirements of political office is that you suborn your own pride and ego in order to win. Clinton has demonstrated this over and over again, that she is willing to do things that she knows maker he look foolish or subservient in order to gain the power she wants. When you are the head of a movement, when millions of people are depending on you to win, your own pride and ego cease to be relevant in the face of that awesome responsibility.

But can Donald Trump do the same? Is he capable of apologizing for something he isn’t actually sorry for? Is he capable of looking weak and vulnerable on that debate stage, in front of all those people? Is he willing, really, to look like a loser?

His whole life so far has been one attempt to live up to his fathers Manichean worldview. Trump Senior told young Donald that there were two kinds of people in the world; winners and losers. And so Donald became a winner.

 

He cannot simply let the attacks slide, or accept the brick-bats and jeers as he should. He has to fight back. Because if he doesn’t, people might think he is a loser. But in so doing, he will guarantee his defeat.

What he should do is give some kind of heartfelt apology, focus on trade, the economy and the corruption of the Washington establishment. But what i think he will do is compulsively defend himself and the edifice of his own majesty against the barbs of an unfair world. And you simply cannot come back from this position by playing defence.